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    Opinion: We Are Heading For A Civil War

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    The situation as it stands at the moment, with the impending general elections in about a year’s time, with all signs showing that it is going to be rigged, then all ingredients [that] are necessary to spark off a civil are in place. People are so fed up of the NRM, that picking up arms as honourable Hussein Kyanjo hinted is the only viable alternative. Museveni has underestimated the people of Uganda as his predecessor Milton Obote did. He has put his trust in the gun and even armed his tribesmen to the brink. This is going to be his undoing. In this coming civil war, three tribes are going to be more involved than the rest, namely Baganda, Banyankole and Bakiga. The remaining tribes will as usual side with the winning side. All pleas to Museveni have fallen on deaf ears. He has great confidence in the ability of his armed forces to uphold and sustain his regime. He might not be as lucky as Robert Mugabe and Muamar Qadaffi whose regimes have lasted longest in Africa’s political history.

    As I said in [an earlier] article a few months ago, a civil strike can definitely cripple Museveni’s regime. Museveni’s military machine is just a paper tiger, behind which the coward Museveni hides. A determined civil disobedience or strife, sustained over a period of one month can definitely bring Museveni’s ramshackle regime down. All we need is determination and the willingness to sacrifice a few lives. All I know is that we have got a lot of allies in the armed forces and the police who are tired of this regime with its tribalism and corruption. What is needed is to set off the spark and the whole edifice will burn down.  Museveni will get more and more dictatorial and paranoid as his regime lasts in power. We have seen nothing yet about this dictatorship.

    Every year parliament looks helplessly as billions of taxpayers’ money is allocated to the State House to be used by members of one tribe namely the Banyankole. Almost every weekend, lavish weddings are held by Museveni’s close tribesmen and women marrying off their daughters using taxpayer’s money. A lot of money is dubiously allocated without any rules to be followed.

    People close to the President have built mansions which don’t match their incomes. The finance department of the UPDF at Mbuya is all manned by Banyankole. Even a mere clerk working there, eats daily at the most expensive restaurant in Bugolobi, a high income Kampala suburb, where a meal costs 4000 shillings. The workers in this finance department drive very expensive cars which don’t match their incomes. By comparison, the police personnel live in dilapidated houses at Naguru. Some live nine people in a room. They only survive because of taking bribes from civilians. This shows how Museveni and his tribe’s people are so selfish. I cannot see how the police personnel and many non- Banyankole soldiers in the army can fight to defend Museveni’s regime if Museveni cannot see the pathetic conditions under which they live.

    People like David Jamwa who embezzled peoples’ pension funds and even went to the extent of gambling using that money in an American Casino is still at large plus Patrick Mbabazi who helped himself to ten billion of it and escaped scot-free. Museveni’s call to fight corruption is a two edged sword. This is because corruption starts with Museveni himself, before it spreads to the rest of the country. He cannot accuse others of corruption without them accusing him of the same thing. That is why Mbabazi got away with it. If we are not careful, then I am afraid that one tribe might disappear from the map of Uganda. We saw it in Rwanda, and the same scenario can be replicated in Uganda.

    The killing of thirty Baganda by the security forces following the riots which took place after the Kabaka was refused entry into Kayunga, was just a dress rehearsal of the misery to come. These people though branded thugs by Museveni, did not die in vain. Museveni thinks that Baganda are expendable creatures, that is why he sacrificed many Baganda lives in Luweero in order to come to power. That is why 80 Baganda Moslems were slaughtered in Mbarara, his tribal town. The next civil war is going to be fought hand with hand. Neighbour turning against neighbour. This time the guns will not matter much. Everybody with a grudge against another person will take advantage of the chaos and lawlessness to fulfill his revenge.

    All this can be averted if Museveni steps down lawfully and allows the Constitution and Parliament to steer the country into the future. Like Saddam Hussein, Museveni will not have the time to escape should his regime fall through violence. The more he stays in power, the more he endangers the lives of his tribesmen the Banyankole. During Obote’s regime, the Baganda were the hate symbol. Now the Westerners especially Banyankole are hated more than Baganda were hated during Obote’s regime. I read about a story of an Itetso girl who saw her father shot dead by a Munyankole soldier simply because he was trying to help his friend who had been wounded. The Banyankole have repeated the same mistakes Obote and his troops made.

    Seezi Sewagaba
    Email: sewagaba@hotmail.com

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